The Octagon at UFC 100 is a proving ground tonight for fighters like Michael Bisping, Yoshihiro Akiyama and Brock Lesnar. There’s a bit of doubt about the legitimacy of all three.
The public is backing Frank Mir in his fight against Lesnar. The odds have dropped about 30-cents to minus-220. Bisping is the hot bet right now. He opened as a minus-300 dog months ago and is now only fetching +170 around Las Vegas. Make sure you shop the odds. The most aggressive houses for MMA betting in Las Vegas are M and the Venetian. The host book, MGM-Mirage is only taking action on six fights from this card. Let’s take at shot at the card from a betting standpoint. You can also read Cagewriter’s breakdown of the card in the Las Vegas-Review Journal.
UFC 100 BETTING ODDS:
Recommended picks in BOLD
Frank Mir (+170) v. Brock Lesnar (-200) – UFC Heavyweight championship
Weeks ago I was on Mir at +200. Listening to feedback from fighters and getting a better idea of Mir’s gameplan has made me switch sides. A long drawn out fight with plenty of action on the feet is not the way to go for Mir. He may look slicker at times than Lesnar but somewhere over the course of 10 or 15 minutes Lesnar is going to catch Mir. Lesnar is back to minus-240 off shore.
PICK: LESNAR -200
Thiago Alves (+240) v. Georges St. Pierre (-320) – UFC Welterweight championship
GSP is too high to touch but he’s going to win the fight. He can win this one in any area, even standing. But he and Greg Jackson know that’s not the way to go, so it’ll hit the ground often. Even if St. Pierre has to wear down Alves in the clinch, he’ll eventually get it to the floor where his positioning is unbeatable. GSP will have Alves in defense mode most of the fight.
PICK: ST. PIERRE -320
Michael Bisping (+200) v. Dan Henderson (-250) – Middleweight
I hate this fight. I change my mind everyday. The updated Vegas odds have Henderson at minus-210 and now it’s too hard to pass up. Bisping at +170 isn’t the same as +220. That said, if Bisping makes it into a boxing match and can stay away from Henderson, he has a chance to win. I don’t think he can do it for the full 15 minutes. Hendo has settled in around minus-225 off shore.
PICK: HENDERSON -250
Jake O’Brien (+300) v. Jon Jones (-400) – Light heavyweight
Two wrestler bang heads here. It should be a snoozefest, right? Doubtful. Jones can outwrestle O’Brien but won’t try. O’Brien was called boring and a "human blanket" so many times as a heavyweight it seems to have changed his style recently. He did score several takedowns in his win over Christian Wellisch but he was much more willing to bang on the feet. Jones is better in every area but the price is too high for an official play.
PICK: JONES -400
Paulo Thiago (+300) v. Jon Fitch (-400) – Welterweight
I’m a little intrigued by Thiago simply because we didn’t see his ground game and jiu-jitsu during his shocking win against Josh Koscheck. This may be the guy Fitch doesn’t want to mix it up with on the floor. Thiago did knockout Fitch’s AKA teammate but his striking was sloppy and loose before he scored the finish. A mixture of some takedowns (don’t fall into guard, stand and strike) and boxing should allow to Fitch to finish the fight.
PICK: FITCH -400
Yoshihiro Akiyama (-220) v. Alan Belcher (+180) – Middleweight
Akiyama is another guy with something to prove. He was a huge star and lightning rod in Japan. Was it hype or based on his fighting ability? I don’t see any huge wins on his ledger and he’s facing a big 185er here in Belcher. If Belcher were favored, I’d worry about his focus but he knows this can be another huge win on his ledger. He’ll be ready.
PICK: BELCHER +180
Mark Coleman (+250) v. Stephan Bonnar (-330) – Light heavyweight
I wish Coleman got to weigh-in privately. The image of him stripped down to 205 just throws me off each time. That said, he should be in great condition having worked out of Xtreme Couture for the last two months. Does he have enough in the tank to beat a guy like Bonnar? Bonnar’s one weakness is gameplanning. Will he take it right to Coleman or the let the former UFC heavyweight champ dictate the style of fight? We’ll fire on Bonnar but there could be a little value on Coleman.
PICK: BONNAR -330
Mac Danzig (+150) v. Jim Miller (-180) – Lightweight
I’m still confused by what looks like too much love for Miller. The little guy just got run over by Gray Maynard at UFC 96. Now Danzig isn’t as big as Maynard but he’s a lot more dangerous in most areas of the fight. Miller isn’t going to submit Danzig and I’m not sure that he can outbox him. Give me 50-cents extra on what should be an even fight, I’ll take the dog.
PICK: DANZIG +150
Tom Lawlor (+190) v. C.B. Dolloway (-240) – Middleweight
Dolloway is a weird dude but you have to hand it to him, he’s a whiz on the ground. Lawlor is a wrestler first but won’t be able to overpower Dollaway. When it does go to the ground "The Doberman" is too slick.
PICK: DOLLOWAY -240
Shannon Gugerty (-130) v. Matt Grice (Even) – Lightweight
Tough fight. I liked what I saw from Grice in his last fight against Matt Veech plus he’s been in there with better competition. I’ll shoot for the extra change.
PICK: GRICE Even
Dong Hyun Kim (-140) v. T.J. Grant (+110) – Welterweight
I’m really looking forward to this fight, Grant was excellent in all areas against Akihiro Gono at UFC 97. His boxing was good. He’s got a solid chin and the transitions in his ground game were excellent. Kim just hasn’t looked explosive in either one of his last two fights against Karo Parisyan or Matt Brown. Grant is as high as plus-180 off shore. Wow!
PICK: GRANT +110
